Black swan - a surprising event - a photo on Flickriver

            The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. (Wikipedia)
   

Taken in: Schweiz / Canton de Vaud / Lausanne / Cour (show map)

Taken on: April 2, 2009

Tags:

black swan

lake

swan

switzerland « less

Sets appears in: • Birds • Switzerland

Groups appears in: • Switzerland • Geese and Swans more » • Swans,Gulls and Ducks • Wildlife Watch • 10 Faves and less than 200 Views (when added) • Birds Photos - Check out the new discussions! « less

Camera: Canon PowerShot G10, f/4.0, 1/500 sec, 18.1mm, ISO 200 (more info) (hide info)

Camera:	Canon PowerShot G10
Lens:	6.1-30.5 mm
Aperture:	f/4.0
Exposure Time:	0.002 sec (1/500)
Focal Length:	18.1mm
ISO:	200
Exposure Bias:	0 EV
Flash:	Off, Did not fire
Exposure Mode:	Auto
Metering Mode:	Center-weighted average
White Balance:	Manual
Color Space:	sRGB
Software:	Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 6.0 (Macintosh)
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Stats: 632 views / 3 comments

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